AN AGENT-BASED MODELLING APPROACH FOR ASSESSING ENTREPRENEURIAL INTENTIONS AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN THE RURAL HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY

Rural hospitality and tourism (RHT) play a key role in rural revitalization, especially due to the impact of COVID-19, with more citizens choosing to travel to the countryside for a staycation. Local SMEs, especially family-owned enterprises, make up the majority of the RHT sector, not only providing services and products to satisfy tourists, but also helping with local employment. However, entrepreneurs operating in rural areas face many challenges in terms of capital, skills and education. Hence, it is important to explore the entrepreneurial intention (EI) of local people and how policies can support or change their behaviours. Current research on the RHT industry, rarely study the EI of local people, and the literature on rural entrepreneurship concentrates on developed countries. This study therefore uses agent-based modelling to explore how locals' EI in Chongming island (China) respond to the current impact of COVID-19, and whether policies will bring about changes on the supply side of RHT sector. © SW 2023.All rights reserved

A Structural Equation Model to Analyze the Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Risks on Project Success: Contractors' Perspectives

The purpose of this paper is to capture the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 emerging risks on construction projects' success in developing countries from the contractors' perspective. To achieve this, we collected data from Iraqi construction industry and conducted the following multistage research methodology: (1) preliminary investigation with four construction contractors to identify the success indicators of construction projects;(2) focus group session with 11 experts to identify the COVID-19 emerging risks for the construction industry;(3) semistructured interviews with seven construction experts to develop several hypotheses on the effect of COVID-19 emerging risks on project success;(4) survey data collection from 99 construction contractors;and (5) development of a structural equation model (SEM) to analyze the effects of COVID-19 emerging risks on project success. The results of the SEM analysis show that financial market (FM)-related risks, supply chain operations (SCO)-related risks, health and safety of construction workforce (HSCW)-related risks, organizational implications (OI)-related risks, and contractual implications (CI)-related risks have a significant impact on construction projects success. CI-related risks have the strongest total effects on project success, followed by OI-related risks, FM-related risks, HSCW-related risks, and SCO-related risks, respectively. The results also emphasis the significant mediation role of CI between COVID-19 emerging risks and project success. This study contributes to the body of knowledge and contracting companies by helping researchers and construction contractors to better understand how the key risk factors emerging from extreme conditions like the COVID-19 pandemic affect construction projects' success and may serve as a guideline for developing effective response strategies. © 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.

COVID-19 emerging risk assessment for the construction industry of developing countries: evidence from Iraq

In developing countries, the construction industry has been one of the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic has created a whole new set of risks, causing workforce-related issues, supply chain disruptions, and legal and contractual implications. This research aims to identify and quantitatively analyse COVID-19 emerging risks in the construction industry of Iraq. A mixed method approach was used for data collection and analysis, including a focus group session to identify COVID-19 emerging risks, a survey to rate the identified risks, and the development of a fuzzy-based risk assessment model to analyse the level of riskiness of the identified risks. Results indicate that the most critical COVID-19 risks are (1) contract suspension, (2) contractor bankruptcy, (3) materials price escalation, (4) construction contract claims, (5) inappropriate risk allocation, (6) non-compliance with social distancing guidelines, (7) skills shortage, and (8) poor site and virtual communication. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing academics and industry practitioners with a more comprehensive understanding of the risks arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, this paper presents a novel model for analysing risks related to extreme conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Small island developing states (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: a system dynamics approach. (Special Issue: COVID-19.)

The economy of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is highly dependent on tourism and travel sector. Under the impact of COVID-19, these islands have suffered strongly. Possible recovery strategies are tested through exploring the concept of risk perception as an important factor to influence the behaviour intention under the framework of theory of planned behaviour (TPB). A behavioural simulation is built to help evaluate tourism policies. This paper takes Maldives as an example. Four strategies are tested in the model: social distancing, tax reduction strategy, travel bubble strategy and joint strategy. The results show that the most effective way to change tourist behaviour intention is the travel bubble strategy. The results also indicate that the reduction in tourism arrivals may bring opportunities for local ecosystem recovery. This study exemplifies the advantage of using the system dynamics approach when the past pattern is not a good predictor for the future by making predictions based on how the system works.

Analyzing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Risks on Construction Projects in Developing Countries: Case of Iraq

The construction industry has been exposed to many risks emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. This can be seen from project schedule delays, cost overrun, legal claims to supply chain distribution, and workforce restrictions. To this end, the purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the risks emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic for the construction industry in developing countries by considering the case of the Iraqi construction industry. To achieve this, a mixed-methods approach was adopted as follows: (1) focus group session with eight construction experts to identify the risks emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic;(2) development of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method based on probability and impact risk matrix by considering two additional dimensions, namely Estimated Recovery Time Level (ERTL), and Expected Cost Level (ECL);and (3) survey data collection from 41 Iraqi construction experts to quantify the identified risks. Ultimately, a total of 29 risks were identified and categorized into four construction themes, namely contractual/legal implications, construction financial market, supply chain operations, and health and safety of the construction workforce. The findings show that the most significant COVID-19 pandemic risks are claims arising under a construction contract, virus spreading due to poor hygiene and lack of sanitizing stations, and contractor bankruptcy. This research offers a better understanding of the critical risks emerging from COVID-19, which can be used as a reference for researchers and industry stakeholders in planning to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic risks during the life cycle of a construction project.

Capturing the Impact of COVID-19 on Construction Projects in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Iraq

The outbreak of COVID-19 has impacted construction markets worldwide due to supply chain disruptions, workforce restrictions, and legislative changes. However, construction markets in developing countries are perceived to be more vulnerable to the challenges associated with the pandemic. As such, the goal of this paper is to capture the impact of COVID-19 on construction projects in developing countries by considering the case of the Iraqi construction sector. A multistep research methodology was adopted by the authors, including (1) literature analysis and semistructured interviews with 40 industry experts to identify a comprehensive list of construction themes and factors affected by the pandemic;(2) survey data collection from 388 industry professionals to quantify the significance and influence of each identified factor;(3) Cronbach's alpha test to check the reliability of the survey;(4) fuzzy inference system to assess the impact of the pandemic on each construction theme and factor;and (5) Mann-Whitney U-test to examine the perceived impact by the public and private sectors. Results show that the pandemic has impacted a total of 16 construction factors grouped under four construction themes, including contractual implications, construction financial market, and supply chain operations, as well as safety and risk management, where the latter is the most impacted theme. The factors impacted the most by the pandemic are safety management measures, interpretation of the contract language, building materials prices, risk management practices, construction materials, construction labor, and construction subcontractors. Also, the findings of the fuzzy model show significant difference in the captured impact of the pandemic between the public and private sectors. This research contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a foothold foundation for researchers and decision makers to enhance investigating the effect of the pandemic with its deep uncertainties in relation to developing countries. © 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.